September 2008


The financial crisis is moving into its second year and there are no comforting signs that the hurricane is fading. Over the past year banks have announced writedowns and credit losses of USD510bn, while capital raised runs at USD360bn. This USD150bn gap is taken off the balance sheet and the…

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FX Forecast Update: Extending the Tunnel

US interest rates and rate expectations fell sharply from mid-2007 through early 2008, but the term structure on the US dollar yield curve clearly shows markets expect much more through the coming two years of trade. We measure medium term interest rate forecasts as the difference between short-term (3-month) interest…

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Forex Interest Rate Outlook

The Japanese economy has contracted sharply in Q2 and could well slip into recession at some point in 2008.

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Japan: Slipping into Recession

Downwardly revised data showed the UK economy stagnated in Q2, leading to a sharp decline in the pound last month.

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International Financial Outlook

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